Retail Data Points to a Potential ‘Trump Slump’ for the Firearms Market
Gearfire has released its RetailBI 2025 Q2 Shooting Sports Industry Report, revealing a sharper and more widespread market slowdown than firearms supply-chain stakeholders had anticipated coming into the year. Informed by point-of-sale data from over 2,000 dealers nationwide, the quarterly report confirms an unexpected market contraction, which many are attributing to recent political and economic shifts.
“With the transition away from a 2A-restrictive administration, much of the urgency that previously drove sales has evaporated. Add in the potential strain from recent trade policies changes and economic uncertainty, and firearm businesses may now be facing a triple hit of rising costs, slowing demand, and waning consumer confidence,” said Kaleb Seymour, VP of Data & Analytics at Gearfire. “Everyone’s feeling the downturn in the market and proceeding cautiously, a sentiment across the industry that mirrors what the data confirms.”
Key Market Challenges for Firearm Retail in Q2 2025
- Deeper Downturns: Sales in several categories are experiencing as much as a -30% reduction, exceeding previous market predictions
- Inventory Pullbacks: In response to slower sell-through rates, retailers have reduced on-hand inventory levels for several product segments
- Margins Under Pressure: Driven by recent tariff increases on imports and discounting strategies applied at the retail-level, many categories have been showing signs of profit margin compression
- Demand Disconnect: The disparity between adjusted NICS checks and actual retail sales continues to widen, underscoring the flawed correlation of using background checks as an indicator of demand
Data-Driven Insights for Shooting Sports Supply-Chain Management
For manufacturers and distributors looking to stay ahead of the curve, RetailBI is a must-have strategic tool to validate forecasting and align benchmarks. Whether managing inventory, analyzing product life-cycles, or adjusting go-to-market strategies, the actionable insights provided by RetailBI’s real-world data and powerful analytics help decision-makers quickly adapt to changing market dynamics with confidence and precision. Businesses ready to move beyond assumptions and guesswork are encouraged to download the complimentary RetailBI 2025 Q2 Shooting Sports Industry Report as a demonstration of the clarity RetailBI can provide.
For the full copy of the RetailBI 2025 Q2 Shooting Sports Industry Report, find the FREE DOWNLOAD HERE.
About GoGeafire Team
GoGearfire is your go-to source for informed perspectives in the firearms retail industry. Our team, experienced and dedicated to this unique field, provides valuable insights into integrated solutions, compliance, and operational efficiency. With a passion for firearms and a commitment to the community, we share our expertise to help businesses thrive. Explore our blogs for a deeper understanding of the industry, and trust GoGearfire as your partner in navigating its challenges and opportunities.