Scottsdale, AZ— The latest quarterly report from Gearfire’s RetailBI confirms what many in the shooting sports industry suspected: 2025 is shaping up to be even tougher than originally forecast. According to the Q1 2025 Shooting Sports Report, the market contraction will be greater than previously projected.
Retail Data Exposes Deepening Strain
Drawing from in-store and online sales data across more than 2,400 firearm retailers, RetailBI’s quarterly report paints a stark picture of current market health and uncovers recent unexpected shifts in consumer demand, pricing behavior, and inventory levels that point to an even steeper decline ahead.
“Forecasting in today’s economic climate is especially difficult. In the past, the shooting sports industry often saw gains during periods of instability—but this time, other market forces are outweighing that effect,” said Kaleb Seymour, VP of Data & Analytics at Gearfire. “While our original projection of a -9% year-over-year decline closely matched Q1’s actual result of -9.6%, recent trends in key indicators point to a deeper downturn, leading us to revise our year-end forecast to reflect greater overall losses.”
Strategic Insights for Smarter Decisions
Despite the overall projection downturn, the report uncovers important signals for businesses ready to pivot—offering a path to mitigate losses and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
- Growth Outlier* – One segment is posting double-digit year-over-year gains, despite the downturn elsewhere
- Inventory Buildup* – A significant increase in on-hand inventory, pointing to overstock issues and potential negative impact to sell-through performance, cash flow, and pricing pressure
- Pricing Divergence* – Pricing in key segments remains misaligned with market conditions, with many price increases running counter to steadily declining demand
- Demand Disconnect* – Actual retail sales are declining at a faster rate than the number of NICS checks, creating a widening gap between real and perceived consumer demand
*DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT FOR STATISTICAL BREAKDOWNS AND COMMENTARY
Seymour continues, “There’s no crystal ball in this industry, but directional data from the point of sale offers the next best thing—real-world outcomes and actionable insights that give businesses across the entire supply chain the clarity to move quickly and with confidence.”
Download the Q1 2025 Shooting Sports Report
The full Q1 2025 Shooting Sports Report is available now.
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