RetailBI Firearm Sales Index: A New Era in Firearm Industry Analytics

The Firearm Market’s New Performance Measurement

RetailBI, the leading provider of data-driven insights for the shooting sports industry, has unveiled the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index (Same-Store Adjusted) — a groundbreaking performance benchmark of firearm sales and demand. Set to publish its first report in August 2025, the Index provides the firearm industry supply chain with the most accurate measure of consumer purchasing behavior yet.

For decades, the firearm industry supply-chain has relied on adjusted NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) figures as a proxy for consumer demand, correlating all background checks directly to interest in new firearm purchases. While new firearm sales do require a background check and would be reflected in the NICS results in most cases, this methodology proves to be flawed when considering the many common scenarios that make NICS an imprecise measure of new firearm demand.

Solving Firearm Demand Forecasting Challenges

The firearm industry’s supply chain has long struggled with the limitations of NICS-based demand tracking. While it captures some activity linked to firearm transactions, NICS figures also include:

• Permit applications not tied to purchases
• Used firearm sales that don’t represent demand for new guns
• Firearm transfers which may not be a newly acquired firearm
• Multiple-firearm purchases counted as a single transaction
• Administrative denials that don’t result in a completed transaction

This aggregation distorts market analysis, making it difficult for manufacturers and distributors to align production and inventory levels with actual consumer buying behavior.

The RetailBI Firearm Sales Index solves this problem by tracking same-store point of sale and ecommerce transactions from a select network of firearms retailers nationwide, including those in states that do use NICS, and compares changes over time. By using a same-store adjusted methodology and a carefully selected subset of retailers based on their reporting start date, the Index eliminates distortions caused by store openings, closures, or changes in reporting partners. This ensures true apples-to-apples comparisons and delivers the most accurate measure of retail performance available to the firearms industry.

“We’re excited to introduce a transparent, data-driven benchmark that reflects actual new consumer purchases at the retail counter,” said Kaleb Seymour, VP of Data Analytics at Gearfire. “The firearms industry supply chain deserves a measurement that isn’t clouded by irrelevant information, circumstantial influences, and unfounded assumptions. That’s exactly what the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index delivers.”

Timely, Transparent Data Driving the Shooting Sports Industry Forward

The RetailBI Firearm Sales Index provides the shooting sports industry with a monthly snapshot of true consumer demand.
Unlike quarterly or lagging indicators, the Index delivers real-time market intelligence, helping businesses stay agile and informed.

Key Benefits of the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index

• Real-World Accuracy – Tracks sales directly from retail POS systems and ecommerce sites, reflecting genuine market activity
• Baseline Consistency – Same-store adjusted dataset eliminates distortions
• Timely Insights – Published monthly for faster response to shifting consumer trends.

This new approach enables every segment of the industry — from firearm manufacturers and distributors to retailers, investors, and policymakers — to make smarter, data-backed decisions rooted in actual consumer transactions.

Driving Smarter Supply Chain and Inventory Decisions

By modernizing how firearm demand is measured, the Index empowers stakeholders to:

• Optimize production and distribution based on verified retail trends
• Forecast consumer demand with greater precision
• Align inventory strategies with real-world sell-through rates
• Measure performance benchmarks that reflect the health of the retail ecosystem

For manufacturers and distributors, this means reducing costly overproduction and better synchronizing with retailer needs, ensuring the preservation of market health and profit optimization. For retailers, it means understanding how their performance stacks up against national trends.

The RetailBI Firearm Sales Index (Same-Store Adjusted) will be published monthly, starting in August 2025, and will be offered to RetailBI subscribers before the general release.