RetailBI has released the September RetailBI Firearm Sales Index, the firearm industry’s most accurate benchmark of retail performance and indicator of consumer purchasing behavior of new firearms, reporting -10.2% for September, with a year-to-date decline of -11.2%.
Why the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index was Created
Gearfire’s RetailBI believes the firearm supply-chain deserves a creditable, data-driven performance marker to guide new firearm production and inventory decisions that precisely align with true consumer demand, optimizing sell-through rates while preserving overall market health.
For decades, firearm manufacturers and distributors have relied on NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) figures as a proxy for consumer demand when forecasting production and inventory needs. While new firearm sales do require a background check and would be reflected in the NICS results in most cases, this methodology proves to be flawed when considering common scenarios— such as permit applications, used firearm sales, transfers, denials, and multiple-firearm transactions — that make NICS an imprecise measure of new firearm demand.
How the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index is Calculated
RetailBI compiles point of sale and ecommerce transactions from a carefully selected subset of retailers within their network and isolates new firearm sales. RetailBI then compares unit sales for the same period (month and/or year-to-date) to the previous year, reporting the variance as a percentage.
By using a same-store adjusted methodology and tracking of only new firearms, the Index eliminates distortions caused by store openings/closures and irrelevant information. This approach ensures true apples-to-apples comparisons and delivers the most accurate measure of new firearms retail performance and demand available to the shooting sports industry.
About GoGeafire Team
GoGearfire is your go-to source for informed perspectives in the firearms retail industry. Our team, experienced and dedicated to this unique field, provides valuable insights into integrated solutions, compliance, and operational efficiency. With a passion for firearms and a commitment to the community, we share our expertise to help businesses thrive. Explore our blogs for a deeper understanding of the industry, and trust GoGearfire as your partner in navigating its challenges and opportunities.