RetailBI has released the August 2025 RetailBI Firearm Sales Index (Same-Store Adjusted), the industry’s most accurate measure of new firearm purchasing behavior, reporting a decline of 17% compared to August 2024.
Why We Created the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index
For decades, the firearm industry supply-chain has relied on NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) figures as a proxy for consumer demand when forecasting production and inventory needs. While new firearm sales do require a background check and would be reflected in the NICS results in most cases, this methodology proves to be flawed when considering common scenarios— such as permit applications, used firearm sales, transfers, denials, and multiple-firearm transactions — that make NICS an imprecise measure of new firearm demand.
We believe firearm manufacturers and distributors deserve a creditable, data-driven benchmark to guide new firearm production and inventory decisions that preserve overall market health while accurately meeting consumer demand.
How the RetailBI Firearm Sales Index is Calculated
RetailBI Firearm Sales Index aggregates same-store point of sale and ecommerce transactions and isolates new firearm sales. RetailBI then compares year-over-year unit sales for the given month and displays the change as a percentage.
By using a same-store adjusted methodology, a carefully selected subset of retailers based on their reporting start date, and tracking of only new firearms, the Index eliminates distortions caused by store openings/closures and irrelevant information. This approach ensures true apples-to-apples comparisons and delivers the most accurate measure of new firearms retail performance available to the shooting sports industry.
About GoGeafire Team
GoGearfire is your go-to source for informed perspectives in the firearms retail industry. Our team, experienced and dedicated to this unique field, provides valuable insights into integrated solutions, compliance, and operational efficiency. With a passion for firearms and a commitment to the community, we share our expertise to help businesses thrive. Explore our blogs for a deeper understanding of the industry, and trust GoGearfire as your partner in navigating its challenges and opportunities.